[ChineseEconomyonFastTrack4中国经济步入快车道]He said there is hardly any fixed formula for success in China, but foreign investors need to pay attention to several points:The China context:China's histor...+阅读

China's economy will be disrupted in the short term, but in the long run, it can benefit immensely from its WTO entry, said Subbaraman.

Rising numbers of bankruptcies and displaced workers are likely, as increased trade petition after the WTO forces a reallocation of resources away from protected and less petitive industries to sectors where China has more of a parative advantage, he said.

According to the International Moary Fund, WTO accession will subtract 0.3 per cent from China's real GDP growth in the first year.

Subbaraman said potential losers from the accession include the highly protected agricultural, telemunications and banking sectors and some of the more capital-intensive ones such as the auto industry.

Besides short-term adjustment costs, WTO accession will he a profound effect on the position of China's balance of payments, he said.

The reduction in trade barriers will lead to a substantial increase in merchandise imports but only a modest rise in exports.

Furthermore, WTO entry will help spur the development of the legal and regulatory framework and accelerate reform in the bank and enterprise sectors, thus creating demand for foreign services -financial, accounting, management consultancy and legal-to su

pport restructuring.

As a result, the current account surplus of US 20.5 billion in 2000 is likely to deteriorate and could sink into a small deficit by 2003, Subbaraman said in his report.

However, the deterioration in China's current account should be more than offset by an improvement in the capital account, noted Paul Sheard, chief economist for Lehman Brothers Asia.

The liberalization of China's services sector should attract stronger FDI (foreign direct investment) inflows, while measures to strengthen the rule of law and to broaden and deepen the bond and equity markets should help deter portfolio capital flight.

"On our estimates, actual FDI will soar from US 46.8 billion today to around US 65 billion by the end of 2003," he said, adding that China's overall balance of payments surplus is expected to increase steadily in the ing years.

"This means that the tendency for the RMB will be to appreciate once China begins to move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime," he said.

In the long run, WTO entry is expected to add around 1.3 per cent per annum to China's GDP growth, he added.

"We are optimistic that China will achieve an erage 6 per cent growth over the next two decades," he said at the press conference.

以下为关联文档：

ChineseEconomyonFastTrack1中国经济步入快车道The size of the Chinese economy is likely to climb, in world rankings, from its current position as the sixth largest to the second largest by 2030, said econom...

ChineseEconomyonFastTrack3中国经济步入快车道In the report, Subbaraman said the answer to the question: "Should we be there?" is a cautious "yes" for multinational investors with a global foothold.On one...

“生物物理学”驶入快车道说起生物物理大家也许觉得陌生，但恐怕没有人不知道1958年我国人工合成的结晶牛胰岛素，那其实就是生物物理学的成果。生物物理作为一门独立的学科产生至今只有半个世纪左右，但...